When will it end? Russo-Ukrainian war, violent as ever

Image source: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine

As the fourth winter of the Russo-Ukrainian War draws closer, both sides are still engaged in a torturous standoff characterized by intense combat, strikes on infrastructure, and stalled negotiations. Despite significant losses, neither Kyiv nor Moscow seems to be on the verge of a lasting peace agreement or a major breakthrough.

Relentless Battling

Russian forces have stepped up their missile and drone attacks across Ukraine in recent weeks, targeting critical gas and power infrastructure ahead of the cold season. Ukrainian officials say the barrages are meant to depress civilian morale and destroy the country's electrical grid.

Although Ukraine claims to have intercepted the majority of incoming drones and missiles, some have managed to get past defenses and damage fuel storage facilities and thermal power plants. Ukrainian officials say a major strike this week "seriously damaged a key power plant."

On the ground, fierce fighting is still going on in Donetsk Oblast, especially in the areas around Pokrovsk and Dobropillia. Ukrainian troops have reportedly caused "significant losses" to Russian units, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

In the meantime, Russia asserts that it has taken control of a number of Zaporizhzhia villages, although these claims have not been confirmed. In retaliation, Ukraine launched long-range drone attacks inside Russia, targeting oil depots and refineries in the Belgorod and Bryansk regions.

Diplomacy on Pause

Peace talks are still on hold. The Kremlin recently affirmed that there is no new framework for dialogue and that the momentum for negotiations after the Putin-Trump summit "has been exhausted." Russia rejects Ukraine's demands for the return of occupied territories and the complete withdrawal of Russian troops. Earlier attempts by Kyiv to initiate new negotiations—including a proposal for high-level peace talks in July—failed to produce results.

Humanitarian and Economic Strain

As winter draws near, worries about power outages and heating malfunctions increase. There have been numerous attacks on energy facilities, and rolling blackouts are occurring in some areas. If repairs are unable to keep up with the attacks, aid organizations warn of a "potential humanitarian emergency."

There are still a lot of internally displaced Ukrainians and refugees. Citing ongoing instability, Switzerland recently extended protected status for Ukrainians through March 2027.

International Support and Sanctions

Despite growing weariness and political rifts, Western allies still provide Ukraine with financial support and weapons. In an effort to lessen Moscow's influence, the European Union recently advanced legislation to phase out imports of Russian gas and oil by 2028.

Ukraine also claims that despite sanctions meant to limit access to high-tech parts, thousands of foreign-made components are still present in Russian weapons.

Overview

Both sides are preparing for another challenging season as winter approaches. While stalled diplomacy offers little hope for an early end to the war, analysts caution that ongoing infrastructure attacks could worsen the humanitarian crisis.

As of right now, there is no indication that the bleak cycle of attrition between Russia and Ukraine will end before the year is out.