The Collapse of the French Government and Its Bleak Political Forecast

The Economist

On 9 September 2025, France’s prime minister, François Bayrou, submitted his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron, who accepted it, after Mr. Bayrou lost a vote of confidence in the French National Assembly, the day before, by a large margin: 364 votes against, 194 in favour. 

The motion for Mr. Bayrou’s resignation was tied to his unpopular budget proposal, which attempted large spending cuts to address France’s public debt. Mr. Macron has already appointed the new prime minister, Sébastien Lecornu, who now confronts a difficult situation: a fragmented parliament, pressure, and public debt, a problem the predecessor attempted to solve. 

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Mr. Bayrou’s resignation was not without precedent; in less than two years, France has gone through five ministers, an atypical political turbulence. After the unstable Fourth Republic (1946-1958), characterized by weak coalitions that constantly collapsed, resulting in more than 20 government collapses over the span of 12 years, France established the Fifth Republic (1958-present), designed to address the instability of its predecessor. Unlike the Fourth Republic, the Fifth Republic enabled the president with a majority of parliamentary votes to keep their government for multiple years without collapsing, as shown in Mr. Macron’s own first Prime Minister, Édouard Philippe, who lasted for three years. 

The termination of France’s political stability can be traced to Mr. Macron’s failed snap election in 2024, where he dissolved the National Assembly after his centralist party lost ground to both the far left and the right. Mr. Macron’s political gamble was aimed at winning back a majority so that his centralist bloc could pass legislation more easily. Instead, his snap election backfired with the far-right National Rally surging and the left-wing alliance gaining seats in the parliament, leaving France’s National Assembly divided and his centrist block being weaker than before.  

BBC

The fact that Mr. Macron isn’t backed up by either of the main established far-right and left-wing parties is also the cause of such subsequent government collapses. Previously in the Fifth Republic, France could maintain political stability as the two main political parties, left and right, alternated powers. Yet, Mr. Macron broke this when he came to power in 2017 without the support of either group. Hence, without majority support, any Prime Minister Mr. Macron appoints relies on opposition parties. Therefore, when the Prime Minister announces a controversial policy or reform, such as Mr. Bayrou’s budget proposal, opposition parties, the left and right, can unite to rule the government out in a no-confidence vote. Mr. Macron’s failed attempt for the snap election not only deepened the fragmentation in the General Assembly, but also made both the far right and left unwilling to compromise with Mr. Macron’s centrists and question Mr. Macron.  

Mr. Macron has now already appointed his new Prime Minister, yet this remains only a temporary measure. With more control and seats from mainstream parties, Mr. Lecornu now has to contend with a more polarized National Assembly and a vulnerable state where a single blunder can cause the National Assembly to vote him out again.