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The Road to the White House: What to Expect in the Upcoming US Election

Ivan Moreno

Two presidents will meet again this November to face off in the United States election. While not official, it is generally accepted that former president Donald Trump, president from 2016 to 2020 will lead the conservative Republican party against President Joe Biden and the liberal Democratic Party. 


In many ways, this is an unprecedented election in United States history. For one, Mr. Trump is currently facing ninety-one felony counts across four criminal cases, the first former US president to be indicted. If Mr. Biden were to win, he would break his own record for the oldest president.


Both presidents have mediocre popularity among Americans. According to a study from 538, Mr. Biden’s approval rate is approximately 39.1%, and among his party, an ABC News/Washington Post poll saw that only 57% see him as a satisfactory candidate. On the other hand, 72% of Republicans view Mr. Trump as satisfactory. Additionally, even though Mr. Trump is under trial for a multitude of crimes, only one in five Republicans believe Mr. Trump solicited election fraud, one of the main charges against him, showing many Republicans do not believe Mr. Trump is guilty of the crimes he has been accused of.


So far, two primary elections have been held, in Iowa and New Hampshire. Since the Democratic party is essentially decided (while there are two other candidates, Representative Dean Phillips and author Marianne Williamson, they have very limited influence with Democrats compared to Mr. Biden), I will mainly discuss the Republican primaries. Four main candidates were running in the Iowa caucuses. These were Donald Trump, who gained 51% of the vote, Ron DeSantis, with 21.2%, Nikki Haley who won 19.1%, and Vivek Ramaswamy with just 7.7%. All other candidates had less than one percent of the vote. Of the candidates running against Mr. Trump, all but Ms. Haley dropped out of the race.


The second primary so far was New Hampshire. In New Hampshire, Mr. Trump received 54.3% of the vote, and Ms. Haley received 43.2% of the vote. While the current margin may not appear insurmountable for Ms. Haley, many argue that New Hampshire was the state in which she had the best chance of winning, and the fact she lost there sets the stage for a potential fifty-state sweep by Mr. Trump. This is because in New Hampshire, Republican voters tend to be more moderate, or center-right-leaning, more in line with Ms. Haley, compared to Mr. Trump’s political leanings, which are considered more “far” or “radical” right.


Even though Ms. Haley’s campaign is on the losing side so far, she has not indicated that she is dropping out anytime soon. She has been attempting to steer Mr. Trump’s supporters away from him in her rhetoric, bringing up his current legal troubles, his age (Ms. Haley is 52, Mr. Trump is 77), and how she, as polls have indicated, has a better chance against President Biden than Mr. Trump does. She argues that it is time for a new generation of leaders, arguing that Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are simply too old for the job, going so far as to call Mr. Biden senile.


Image Credit: NBC News


Next stop on the primaries: Ms. Haley’s home state of South Carolina, where she served as governor from 2011 to 2017. But regardless of Ms. Haley’s history with the state, Republican leaders, with few exceptions, are all getting behind Mr. Trump. She admitted she needed to improve her status in South Carolina compared to how she was in New Hampshire, saying, “I need to show that I’m stronger in South Carolina than New Hampshire. Does that have to be a win? I don’t think that necessarily has to be a win. It certainly has to be close.” 


As far as the key issues in the US, Republicans and Democrats could not be more divided. Republicans are to be the more conservative party, wanting the balance of power between the states and the federal government to favor the states. They are in favor of lower taxes, a strict immigration policy, and more restrictive abortion laws. On the other hand, Democrats are more liberal, being on the opposite spectrum for abortion laws, advocating for worker’s rights, universal health care, protection of the environment, and LGBTQ+ rights. The parties often attack each other's political leanings, even insulting people with opposing views.


In the end, while none of the presidential candidates this November have an overwhelming majority, and the foreseeable outcome is unclear, whoever wins will have a major impact on the country and will begin work immediately. President Biden will continue developing what he has worked on, combating climate change, promoting racial equity, and reforming the immigration system. Former President Trump has promised to return to what he started in 2016, cracking down on immigration as well as implementing tariffs and firing many government officials to limit federal power. And if Ms. Haley managed to succeed on a Hail Mary run, she has promised similar immigration policies as Mr. Trump, a unique “union-busting” position, and serious cuts to government spending. It is important to monitor each candidate's positions and remarks in the coming months to understand the scope of the current American political circumstances.

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