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Hebollah’s Influence in Lebanon

David Ortiz Mena

In the swaths of Lebanon, where it has de facto control, Hezbollah operates businesses, provides services and stores its arsenal rockets and missiles.

Stratfor

Disaster in Lebanon may be viewed, perhaps, as an inevitability. The nation we know today was invented by the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres, wherein the victorious Allies of World War 1 doled out the ruins of the fallen Ottoman Empire. In this way, a territory that had only ever existed a part of a larger state — be it the Phoenicians, Egyptians, Romans, Christindom, or a Sultan — became a French protectorate. 


To make a long story short, the Nazi occupation of Paris would eventually permit Lebanese independence in 1943, with a considerable amount of land being partitioned to form what is now Syria, where  its inhabitants would become just as diverse as its history, a mosaic of sects from Christianity and Islam.


From day one, Lebanon was unable to establish the kind of government that any Westerner would have expected by the 20th century. Instead of a democracy founded on the equality of its citizens and the protection of individual rights, a cross between Francoist Spain and Apartheid South Africa is the best description for the unnatural country. Namely, power was to be wielded on religious and ethnic lines: Maronite Christians held a monopoly over the presidency, while Parliament became the fiefdom of Shia Muslims and Sunnis shared the premiership with Orthodox Christians.


Lebanon’s early days were marred by its disastrous war on Israel, and subsequent repression of ethnic Palestinians within its borders. However, despite turmoil roused up by Arab nationalists, it entered the 1970s largely stable and prosperous. Then, in 1975, violence between Maronite and Muslim militias led to a devastating civil war. Other groups joined the battles, and both Syria and Israel intervened in the following years. Brutal urban fighting killed 150,000 people, and resulted in a foreign occupation until the mid-2000s. A ceasefire arrived in 1989, with the Taif Agreement, further entrenching sectarianism as a form of government. Ideas for a future normalization never materialized.


More recently, in 2019, the country entered into severe financial crises, exacerbated by decades of poor management and highlighting rampant underdevelopment. Devaluation and failed banks made the imports that Lebanon relies on unaffordable.


Nevertheless, another legacy of the civil war still haunts the Middle Eastern nation’s people — Hezbollah. One of the combatants in the aforementioned conflict, the Islamic terrorists have not disarmed, rather acting as Iranian proxies by controlling chunks of territory. Deeply anti-semitic, Hezbollah openly seeks the total destruction of the Jewish state.


Conflict between the Jihadist militants and Israel’s Defence Forces is far from unprecedented. In the 1980s, guerilla attacks against the latter were common. More recently, the vast arsenals that Iranian support has supplied them enabled missile attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure, while Hezbollah began to support other criminal organizations, most notably Hamas.


At times, the low-intensity conflict saw worrying flare ups. For example, in 2006, Premier Ehmud Olmert launched an offensive in response to the killing of a border patrol. This resulting war only lasted a month, and the UN implemented a ceasefire. However, provisions for the security of the Jewish people were never fully implemented.


On October 7, 2023, Palestinian nationalists tore into the Gaza Strip’s border. 1,000 rockets and 6,000 terrorists poured into peaceful towns like Sderot, Netivot, and Ofakim. Before the situation could be controlled, 797 civilians had been murdered (a war crime under international law) while 291 had been taken hostage (also illegal under the laws of war).


Israel, invoking its right to self-defense, as a sovereign state, under the UN Charter, has carried out a series of controversial operations in that area since then, to eliminate Hamas’ operational capacity. Recently, however, senior government ministers announced a new phase in the war: to attack Hezbollah. Activating the aforementioned UN authorization, on October 1st of this year, a number of precision attacks eliminated senior leaders. The IDF would then launch the ground invasion of Southern Lebanon. That’s where we are today.


Concerns remain, however. For one, Hezbollah is much larger than Hamas, with 100,000 armed members. This could turn into a much more prolonged and less decisive war than Gaza’s. Also worrying is the role Iran could play — if they were brought in to defend their ally, it could spark a regional war, the likes of which has not been seen for a generation.

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